Looking ahead to 2017

Well, no one can accuse 2016 of being boring.  I managed to get the big calls right – I predicted back in November 2015 that Trump would become president, and thought that Britain would vote to leave the EU (in both cases, reluctant urbanites were up against an enthusiastic (and angry) countryside, and the countryside won).  But when your predictions align with your preferences you probably can’t claim too much credit!

Europe

Looking ahead to some of the political events of 2017, it’s harder to have a sense of the likely outcome.  Proportional representation systems like Italy’s are designed to prevent meaningful change, so the effect of the recent constitutional referendum on Italian politics (which tends to be all froth and no substance) is likely to be limited.  France’s presidential elections pose a greater chance of political disruption.  Although it’s hard to imagine the National Front actually winning the election, as with Trump and Brexit there is once again the potential ... Read More